India will receive normal monsoon this season, country's meteorological department said on Wednesday in its forecast for the Southwest monsoon that covers 75 per cent of the country, and thereby may bring much-needed respite to the economy, which is reeling under the catastrophic effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
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Global goods trade will grow by 3.3 per cent this year, says WTO.
Equity benchmark Nifty scaled the psychological milestone of 21,000 in afternoon trade on Friday, and the Sensex touched its all-time intraday high of 69,888.33 after the central bank's decision to keep policy rates unchanged in line with market expectations. The 50-share benchmark index opened on a bullish note, after taking a breather on Thursday, and rose to 21,006.10. As many as 25 stocks were trading in the green, and 24 stocks defied the broader market and were trading in the negative territory.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth projection for the current fiscal to -7.7 per cent from -9 per cent estimated earlier on rising demand and falling COVID infection rates. "Rising demand and falling infection rates have tempered our expectation of COVID's hit on the Indian economy. S&P Global Ratings has revised real GDP growth to negative 7.7 per cent for the year ending March 2021, from negative 9 per cent previously," S&P said in a statement. The US-based rating agency said its revision in growth forecast reflects a faster-than-expected recovery in the quarter through September. For the next fiscal, it projected India's growth to rebound to 10 per cent.
'Vaccination is very important for an economy to start functioning properly.'
India's services sector growth recorded another month of robust expansion in July, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in June, largely supported by robust demand conditions and investment in technology, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index was at 60.3 in July, down only fractionally from 60.5 in June. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The National Informatics Centre uses AI to automate document analysis and detect fraud in government departments.
The 50-share NSE Nifty slipped below the 10,200-mark by falling 47.20 points, or 0.46 per cent, at 10,192.95 after hovering between 10,169.85 and 10,296.55.
There are reports that the government will soon cut income taxes by about Rs 50,000 crore to boost consumption.
Prime Minister Modi, I suggest that, instead, you distribute about one lakh crore rupees per year to the 80 crore poor, which will boost both consumption and economic growth, suggests Kalyan Singhal, McCurdy Professor of Business at the University of Baltimore.
HSBC's downward revision is in line with similar kind of revisions by a host of other think-tanks, research houses, investment banks and other agencies like the UN, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Stanchart and Citi.
Growth forecast has been lowered owing to tepid growth in the first half of 2017-18, the lingering effects of demonetisation, transitory challenges of GST, and some risks to agriculture stemming from a spotty monsoon.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
Goldman says the downgrade reflects the more difficult external funding conditions for Asia as markets increasingly anticipate Fed tapering and eventual exit from unconventional monetary policies.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
'Our vision for the future includes the creation of an active ecosystem, human space flight, a human space station.'
'With India's growing capabilities in the space sector, this creates promising opportunities for enhanced collaboration and market access.'
The south-west monsoon arrived over Kerala after a delay of four days and its progress since then has been unsatisfactory. Forecasts of rainfall for June and July are not good, CMIE said.
Gandhi also attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the economic situation in the country, saying the PM should get his head "out of the sand" to deal with the problem facing the country.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
GST mop-up likely to fall in May, June after touching record levels in April and March.
In its latest report, the Bank has lowered its forecasts for developing countries, now eying growth at 4.8 per cent this year, down from its January estimate of 5.3 per cent.
The world economy will consume in the next five years far less oil than previously assumed, the western countries' energy watchdog said on Friday in a further sign of the impact of the global economic crisis on commodities markets.
According to Fitch rupee is expected to weaken to 72 to a dollar by the end of December 2019, and further to 73 by December 2020, from 69.82 to a dollar in end December 2018.
"The challenge for many emerging and some developing economies (is) to ensure that present boom-like conditions do not develop into overheating over the coming year," the IMF said in its World economic Outlook report.
The World Bank on Wednesday lowered its economic growth forecast for China this year to 6.5 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent at the end of last November, after huge falls in exports and shrinking private sector investment.
The downgraded World Bank forecast follows a similar move by the International Monetary Fund, which cut its growth forecasts two months ago
The economic think-tank in its earlier projection had suggested that the Indian economy was likely to grow at 5.7 per cent in 2014-15.
'China is struggling to get out of its property bubble.' 'Japan took 35 years to walk out of its equity bubble.' 'Bubbles can be difficult to forecast.'
From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Asian Paints were the major gainers. Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Tata Steel were among the major laggards.
A top panel of economists on Monday slashed its forecast for US economic growth this year, saying the threat of war with Iraq was dampening consumer spending and business activity.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
The multilateral agency had earlier projected that the world economy would expand by 3.6 per cent this year.
'India's economy faces further downside risks from sluggish private investment and rural demand weakened by slow wage growth.'
Three-quarters into the 10 years that Mr Modi had sought for transforming India, the 'output' numbers look impressive, but the key 'outcome' numbers don't show up much, if at all, observes T N Ninan.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to strike a fine balance between being fiscally prudent and growth supportive when she presents her fourth straight budget on Tuesday, which is expected to have plans to boost spending to revive investment and create jobs. The Budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2022 is likely to raise spending on infrastructure to set the economy on a firmer footing. The stage for the Budget presentation was set by the Economic Survey stating that the government has the fiscal space to do more to support the economy that is forecast to grow at a healthy 8-8.5 per cent growth in the 2022-23 fiscal.
